Active Pilot · Updated Monthly

How much will the Honolulu rail actually cost?

One claim, tracked over time with full provenance. Every number on this page links to a specific page and table in an official HART document — and every change is logged.

Total Project Cost — Reported
$10.08B
Stable since the 2022 Recovery Plan baseline. $6.75B incurred to date; $3.33B remaining.
SourceApril 2026 MPR, p.34
Versionv0.5 · June 2026
CutoffIncurred cumulative through 04/30/2026
Evidence18 primary sources · 6 versions
The financial picture

Four questions. Four answers.

A structured, auditable record — each metric drawn from the same primary source and labeled as reported or derived.

1Where are we financially?
$6.75B
Incurred to date
Total cost$10.08B
Remaining$3.33B
Reported · p.34
2Where is cost heading?
$10.08B
Current forecast
2012 est.$5.1B
2017 rev.$8.2B
Stable since 2022
3Do we have the money?
Balanced
Funding position
Authorized$10.08B
Forecast$10.08B
FTA · GET · City
4When will it be done?
2031
Revenue service date
Phase 12023 ✓
City Center2031
Schedule Rev. 8
How far along?

Two ways to measure progress

The same incurred figure ($6.75B) produces two different percentages depending on the denominator. We show both, clearly labeled, rather than picking one.

Of Total Project Cost ($10.08B) 66.99%
$6.75B incurred ÷ $10.08B total project cost. The headline "how much of the whole project is paid for" figure.
Of EAC base cost, excl. contingency 75.45%
As stated in the April 2026 MPR (p.34). Excludes contingency, so the denominator is smaller and the percentage higher. Both are correct; they answer different questions.
The forecast over time

How the estimate has moved

2012
$5.1B
Original estimate
2017
$8.2B
Scope revision
2022 → now
$10.08B
Recovery Plan baseline · stable
Primary source receipts

Verify it yourself

The point of a truth map is that you don't have to take our word for it. Every number traces to these sources.

Change log · trust with memory

What changed, and why

Every revision is preserved — never overwritten. This is the record that lets the claim be trusted over time.

v0.5Jun 2026+$46.82M incurred
Mar 2026 MPR → Apr 2026 MPR
April 2026 Monthly Progress Report. Incurred-to-date increased to $6.751B (75.45% of EAC base cost). Source: p.34 Total Project Cost table and p.4 Summary.
v0.4May 2026+$63.12M incurred
Jan 2026 MPR → Mar 2026 MPR
March 2026 Monthly Progress Report. Incurred-to-date increased to $6.704B (74.98% of EAC base cost).
v0.3Mar 2026+$39.75M incurred
Dec 2025 MPR → Jan 2026 MPR
January 2026 Monthly Progress Report. Incurred-to-date increased to $6.641B (74.68% of EAC base cost).
v0.2Feb 2026+$66.95M incurred
Nov 2025 MPR → Dec 2025 MPR
December 2025 Monthly Progress Report. Incurred-to-date increased to $6.601B (74.23% of EAC base cost).
v0.1Jan 2026+$51.26M incurred
Oct 2025 MPR → Nov 2025 MPR
November 2025 Monthly Progress Report. Incurred-to-date reached $6.534B (73.48% of EAC base cost).
v0.0Dec 2025Baseline
Pilot launch
Initial entry. Baseline established from the October 2025 Monthly Progress Report.
Definitions

What the numbers mean

Incurred to Date Life-to-date

Cumulative incurred costs through the reporting cutoff, per HART's Monthly Progress Report definition. The MPR may specify inclusions/exclusions (e.g. third-party reimbursement costs); we adopt the definition as stated in the cited source.

Remaining to Complete Derived

A derived value from the same primary-source table: Current Forecast "Total Project Cost" − "Incurred to Date." We label this as derived unless the primary source explicitly reports a "cost to complete" line item.

Traceable · Verifiable · Accountable

Caelum does not determine truth. It preserves the record that allows truth to be evaluated.

Each number links to a specific page and section in an official HART document. Any change produces a visible, auditable log entry. That is what trust with memory looks like in practice.